Talk:October surprise

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1980 "October surprise" section should be updated to include 2023 confirmation of the conspiracy.

The section on the 1980 Reagan efforts to keep the Iranians from releasing American hostages should be updated to note that the conspiracy was confirmed to be real by people who were involved in it, per https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/politics/jimmy-carter-october-surprise-iran-hostages.html Rmd1023 (talk) 15:23, 31 May 2023 (UTC)[reply]

The NY Times article hardly confirms it. In fact, it raises a number of issues with the claims made. There has been a RFC on this on the October Surprise conspiracy theory talk page. Rja13ww33 (talk) 22:50, 31 May 2023 (UTC)[reply]

I agree and believe that failure to tell the real story of the October Surprise is a disservice to Jimmy Carter.

There is considerable new verifiable and probative material that supports the October Surprise in Craig Unger's Den of Spies-Reagan, Carter, and the Secret History of the Treason that Stole the White House. On p. 282, the book includes a document which was originally obtained from Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, the former president of Iran, and which is published in the book's photo section. It shows that Jamshid Hashemi AKA Mohammad Ali Hashemi-Balanian sold weapons, including spare parts for a C-130 cargo plane, to Iran in the aftermath of the 1980 election. The documents include a business card(also published in the book's photo insert) for Hashemi-Balanian, who was better known as Jamshid Hashemi(Den of Spies, p. 185n), and who is cited throughout the book as an operative working for Reagan-Bush campaign manager William Casey.

Den of Spies also includes an exclusive interview with Robert Sensi, a political operative who also worked for Casey and who told Unger about his role in the October Surprise. Sensi said, "I met a lot of Iranians during the time of the Shah"(p. 178, Den of Spies) and, as a result, he was able to connect Casey to key Iranians. "Casey never spoke on the phone," said Sensi. "Casey kept everything very compartmentalized. He never wanted the left hand to know what the right was doing."

Sensi added(p.236) that Casey often traveled on a phony passport under the name Daniel O'Neill and wore a blond wig that was "the color of Donald Trump's hair." p. 236. Sensi said he helped set up a second set of meetings in Madrid on August 11 and August 12 between Casey and the Iranians, this time including a meeting with a powerful cleric named Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani. (p. 236) "They finalized whatver missing elements there were....," said Sensi. "They had to make sure that the hostages were going to be held until after the election and that the Israelis would sell them military hardware."(p. 237) When Unger asked if the October Surprise had taken place, Sensi replied, "One hundred million percent. Absolutely. Unequivocally. And you can quote me."(P. 237)

The book also cites documents(p. 156,following), originally obtained by Robert Parry, the late investigative journalist, that were provided by the Soviet Union in response to a query from the House of Representatives investigation into the October Surprise. According to Den of Spies(p. 157-8), "The Soviets stated as fact that Casey, George Bush, and other Republicans had secretly met with Iranian officials in Europe during the 1980 presidential campaign. 'William Casey, in 1980, met three times with representatives of the Iranian leadership,' the Russians wrote.16 “The meetings took place in Madrid and Paris.”

“In Madrid and Paris," the Soviet report continued, "the representatives of Ronald Reagan and the Iranian leadership discussed the question of possibly delaying the release of 52 hostages from the staff of the US Embassy in Teheran.”

The book contains a significant amount of new material that supports the October Surprise--including how it was covered up by Newsweek and The New Republic.

Clarifying criteria for adding examples

I removed the examples that were disputed instances of an October Surprise due to WP:Recentism and lack of consensus in reliable sources and wanted to start a discussion here on the inclusion criteria (guessing it isn't every surprising thing the might impact the race that occurs around October. This article gives a good overview of why I think we should approach this page by only adding examples with a near-consensus among reliable sources that the surprise is very significant to deciding who wins. Superb Owl (talk) 04:29, 14 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Following up on this, it is WP:OR/WP:SYNTH to simply add something to this page because it happened in October and it was surprising to you. Only what is termed an "October surprise" by RS belongs on this page. – Muboshgu (talk) 20:00, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Should the Tony Hinchcliffe section be removed? A few reliable sources saying "this MIGHT be an october surprise for Pennsylvania" does not seem to fit this guideline. Especially since there are now reliable sources are also saying it is showing to be negligible in the outcome of the election, or that Trump is showing signs of recovering from it to a point where it won't matter. For example: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/latinos-decide-election-pennsylvania-00186534 I feel like that with the current state of the election this article should remain WP:SKEPOV until actual data unanimously shows that there was an effect from an event. GarlicBreadBen (talk) 17:14, 4 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

John Kelly's comments about "Hitler's Generals"

Would the recent comments that John Kelly made about Trump wanting generals like Hitler's meet the criteria for an october surprise? I haven't found any news outlets that directly calls it one, but it seems like it would fit the bill.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-john-kelly-nazis-hitler-87d672e1ec1a6645808050fc60f6b8bc Spatuladoom (talk) 18:00, 23 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think we should only add those stories that are directly labeled October Surprises by multiple RSs. The article is now getting to the point where every story that breaks, somebody wants to add it (whether it is labeled that or not). To me, that goes against polices such as NOTNEWS.Rja13ww33 (talk) 20:48, 23 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I agree.--Jack Upland (talk) 00:10, 24 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Joe Biden's "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters" comment

Should Joe Biden's "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters" comment be mentionned? It is a direct response to something already mentioned in the article and Biden's comment is the one that may have influenced the outcome of th election (Donald Trump winning the state of Pennsylvania). BookNotion (talk) 21:37, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Given that Trump won, I think it would be adequate to include this as part of the October surprise. The comments at the Madison Square Garden rally clearly did not have an impact on the election results (Trump won comfortably), but it is possible that the Democrats struggling to perform damage control after Biden arguably called tens of millions of Americans "garbage" in response to the Madison Square Garden incident indicates that Biden's comments may have had a larger impact than Hitchcliffe's. AmericanBaath (talk) 13:28, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Is there any WP:RS that calls the comment an "October surprise"? If not, it's WP:OR. And the comment is not why Trump won. – Muboshgu (talk) 14:55, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Death of Peanut the squirrel

I'm surprised this isn't mentioned already – even though the Peanut (squirrel) incident seems pretty minor compared to some other topics including the Hunter Biden laptop debacle, there's a good case to be made that several elements of the story qualify it as an October Surprise. The squirrel was killed six days before the election and from then until Nov. 5th was a massive topic of outrage on social media and in conventional news. Trump campaign officials including Trump himself spun the incident into an example of government overreach blamed on the Biden/Harris admin, and Kamala Harris herself was asked about her responsibility at a press conference. The incredibly close proximity to the election, the widespread outrage, and the dedicated weaponization of the incident by the Trump campaign are all October Surprise-worthy. I would guess the lack of recognition so far is because the story almost immediately disappeared from the public view after Trump's election victory – perhaps further proof that the incident's real value was as a political weapon, no longer interesting once it could no longer influence the election. Ggbie (talk) 09:01, 15 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]